SOCIAL BELIEFS AND JUDGEMENT
How do we judge our social worlds, consciously and unconsciously?
-we have two brain systems:
1. System 1: functons automatcally and out of our awareness aautomatc processin) aimplicit
2. System 2: requires our conscious atenton and efort acontrolled processin) aexplicit
-system 1 infuences more of our actons then we realize
-Primin):
-our memory system is a web of associatonn priming is the awakenin) or actvatn) of certain
associatons. Experiments show that primin) one thou)htn even without awarenessn can infuence
another throu)h or acton
-unnotced events can subtly prim our thinkin) and behaviour
-example in everyday life: watchin) a scare movie and then thinkin) the sound you hear
is someone in your house
-even physical sensatonsn thanks to our embodied cognitonn prime our social jud)ements and vice
versa
-our social co)niton is embodied. The brain systems that process our bodily sensatons
communicate with the brain systems responsible for our social thinkin) aexample: holdin)
somethin) cold can make you feel more lonely and vice versan feelin) lonely can make you feel
more cold
-Intuitve Jud)ements:
-the powers of intuitons
-“we know more than we know we know”
-our thinkin) is partly automatc processing and partly controlled processing
-some thin)s afactsn namesn past experiencen etc. we remember explicitly aconsciously . But
other thin)s askillsn etc we remember implicitly asystem 1
-the limits of intuiton
-a )eneral consensus that the unconscious may not be as smart a previously believed
-althou)h subliminal stmuli can tri))er a weak feetn) responsen there is no evidence that
commercial subliminal messa)es can repro)ram your brain
-Overconfdence
-our system 1 intuitons are sometmes wron). Usually we are unaware of our errorn we display the
overconfidence phenomenon.
-ironicallyn incompetence feeds over confdence
, -part of the problem may be that people ofen )ive too much either to their intentons when predictn)
their future behaviours – howevern intentons are poor predictors of actual behaviour
-stockbroker overconfdencen student overconfdence
-confirmaton biasm searchin) for confrmin) evidence rather then atemptn) to disconfrm hunches.
We are ea)er to verify our beliefs but less inclined to seek evidence that mi)ht disprove them
-confrmaton bias is part of system 1 when we make snap jud)ements. Confrmaton helps
explain why our self-ima)es are so remarkably stable
-remedies for overconfidencem
1. prompt feedback: receivin) feedback about past assumptons can help us to )et beter at
makin) them in the future
2. “unpack” a taskn breakin) it unto subcomponentsn and estmate the tme that you will need
to do each task and then add it all back up
3. Get people to think of one )ood reason why their jud)ement mi)ht be wron)
-Heuristcs: Mental Shortcuts
-heuristcsm simplen efficient thinkin) strate)ies
-representatveness heuristcm to jud)e somethin) by intuitvely comparin) it to our mental
representaton of a cate)ory
-availability heuristcm the more easily we can recall somethin) the more likely it seems aie. if you ask
someone if there are more Canadians or Americans in the world their answer will depend on how many
Canadians or Americans they personally know
-Counterfactual Thinkin): mentally stmulatn) what mi)ht have been
-this occurs when we can easily picture an alternatve outcome
-example: this is why those in 3rd are happier then those in 2nd because those in 2nd can more easily
picture what could have been them )etn) frst place
-the more si)nifcant the eventn the more counterfactual thinkin)
-Illusory Thinkin):
-illusory correlaton: when we expect si)nifcant relatonshipsn we easily associate random events
-people easily misperceive random events as havin) correlaton
-)amblin): compared to those )iven an assi)ned lotery numbern people who chose their own
numbers demanded 4 tmes as much money when asked they would sell their tcket
-re)ression towards the avera)e: another illusory correlaton is when we fail to reco)nize the
statstcal phenomenon of re)ression towards the avera)e. if we do amazin) one tmen we are
eventually )oin) to re)ress back towards the avera)e. and if we do horrible we are most likely
)oin) to )o back up to the avera)e.
How do we judge our social worlds, consciously and unconsciously?
-we have two brain systems:
1. System 1: functons automatcally and out of our awareness aautomatc processin) aimplicit
2. System 2: requires our conscious atenton and efort acontrolled processin) aexplicit
-system 1 infuences more of our actons then we realize
-Primin):
-our memory system is a web of associatonn priming is the awakenin) or actvatn) of certain
associatons. Experiments show that primin) one thou)htn even without awarenessn can infuence
another throu)h or acton
-unnotced events can subtly prim our thinkin) and behaviour
-example in everyday life: watchin) a scare movie and then thinkin) the sound you hear
is someone in your house
-even physical sensatonsn thanks to our embodied cognitonn prime our social jud)ements and vice
versa
-our social co)niton is embodied. The brain systems that process our bodily sensatons
communicate with the brain systems responsible for our social thinkin) aexample: holdin)
somethin) cold can make you feel more lonely and vice versan feelin) lonely can make you feel
more cold
-Intuitve Jud)ements:
-the powers of intuitons
-“we know more than we know we know”
-our thinkin) is partly automatc processing and partly controlled processing
-some thin)s afactsn namesn past experiencen etc. we remember explicitly aconsciously . But
other thin)s askillsn etc we remember implicitly asystem 1
-the limits of intuiton
-a )eneral consensus that the unconscious may not be as smart a previously believed
-althou)h subliminal stmuli can tri))er a weak feetn) responsen there is no evidence that
commercial subliminal messa)es can repro)ram your brain
-Overconfdence
-our system 1 intuitons are sometmes wron). Usually we are unaware of our errorn we display the
overconfidence phenomenon.
-ironicallyn incompetence feeds over confdence
, -part of the problem may be that people ofen )ive too much either to their intentons when predictn)
their future behaviours – howevern intentons are poor predictors of actual behaviour
-stockbroker overconfdencen student overconfdence
-confirmaton biasm searchin) for confrmin) evidence rather then atemptn) to disconfrm hunches.
We are ea)er to verify our beliefs but less inclined to seek evidence that mi)ht disprove them
-confrmaton bias is part of system 1 when we make snap jud)ements. Confrmaton helps
explain why our self-ima)es are so remarkably stable
-remedies for overconfidencem
1. prompt feedback: receivin) feedback about past assumptons can help us to )et beter at
makin) them in the future
2. “unpack” a taskn breakin) it unto subcomponentsn and estmate the tme that you will need
to do each task and then add it all back up
3. Get people to think of one )ood reason why their jud)ement mi)ht be wron)
-Heuristcs: Mental Shortcuts
-heuristcsm simplen efficient thinkin) strate)ies
-representatveness heuristcm to jud)e somethin) by intuitvely comparin) it to our mental
representaton of a cate)ory
-availability heuristcm the more easily we can recall somethin) the more likely it seems aie. if you ask
someone if there are more Canadians or Americans in the world their answer will depend on how many
Canadians or Americans they personally know
-Counterfactual Thinkin): mentally stmulatn) what mi)ht have been
-this occurs when we can easily picture an alternatve outcome
-example: this is why those in 3rd are happier then those in 2nd because those in 2nd can more easily
picture what could have been them )etn) frst place
-the more si)nifcant the eventn the more counterfactual thinkin)
-Illusory Thinkin):
-illusory correlaton: when we expect si)nifcant relatonshipsn we easily associate random events
-people easily misperceive random events as havin) correlaton
-)amblin): compared to those )iven an assi)ned lotery numbern people who chose their own
numbers demanded 4 tmes as much money when asked they would sell their tcket
-re)ression towards the avera)e: another illusory correlaton is when we fail to reco)nize the
statstcal phenomenon of re)ression towards the avera)e. if we do amazin) one tmen we are
eventually )oin) to re)ress back towards the avera)e. and if we do horrible we are most likely
)oin) to )o back up to the avera)e.
